A Question of Value(s)

The NBA's Most Valuable Player

March 29, 2008

It’s that time of the year again. The Easter Bunny has been crucified, the first pollen come hunting for my nose, the New York Knicks have been eliminated from playoff contention… and the inevitable debate over awards, honours and trophies is surfacing yet again.

The NBA doesn’t crown a champion until sometime in June but it gives out its Rookie of the Year, Coach of the Year, Best Sixth Man of the Year and Best Dance Team of the Year award at the end of the regular season. Not to forget, of course, the most important and cherished award of them all: the MVP.

Now the pundits awake from hibernation and let us know their well-founded choices. Maybe it’s just me but a great many times, their reasoning amounts to some gibberish about “team success”, “winning attitude”, “makes everyone better” and so on. What it boils down to is this: writer A loves LeBron, writer B adores Kobe and writer C has a weak spot for Kevin Garnett.

Of course, they wouldn’t openly admit as much. So, broadcasters and journalists from coast to coast have come up with elaborate schemes to justify their choices. To give you a better idea of their thinking, here is a run-down of the various schools of thought of MVP voting and what they mean for this year’s race:

1. The Best-Player-on-the-Best-Team School

A lot of sportswriters argue that team success factors in largely into their choice for MVP. When a player has an outstanding season but his team isn’t winning enough, this has to detract from his value. Marc Stein from ESPN even has a precise measuring stick: only players on teams with at least 50 wins qualify for consideration. Thus, Dirk Nowitzki’s selection last year was partly motivated by the idea of rewarding the best player of a 67-win team.

This year, following this logic, the MVP has to go to Kevin Garnett. The Boston Celtics are the NBA team with the best record and Garnett is the team’s best player. Right? Well, you could argue that the Celtics’ success is not owed to an individual but the result of a triumvirate of Garnett, Paul Pierce and Ray Allen; something that applies to the Detroit Pistons as well. Moving west, it would appear to be a toss-up between Kobe Bryant and Chris Paul who are both clearly the best player on their respective teams. Now, the MVP would go to the one who leads his team to the top of the Western Conference and Paul’s New Orleans Hornets are currently one game ahead of Kobe’s Los Angeles Lakers.

It seems a bit ridiculous that a game more or less in the win-column should decide the MVP race. And it’s not clear to me why a player ought to be punished for having crappy teammates. “Great players make the ones around them better” is the obvious retort but, frankly, who is easier to make better: Anderson Varejao or Pau Gasol?

2. The Best-Player-Period School

Then again, there are some who discard team success as a factor altogether. For them, the MVP award should go to the best player in the game. Period. In years past, these commentators were the ones who vigorously campaigned for Shaquille O'Neal to win the award every single year. This season, many have switched to his former running mate Kobe Bryant.

Admittedly, there is nothing Kobe cannot do: he can score at will, he distributes the basketball and rebounds, he is a leader on the court and is not afraid to take charge in the fourth quarter and to deliver the game-winning shot. There is no-one like him. Except for LeBron James, of course, who does everything Kobe does at a younger age and with a worse supporting cast. Ultimately, it comes down to nuances between the two and – by my count – Kobe wins out by a hair. LeBron James’ performances are met with admiration; Kobe, by contrast, strikes fear into his opponents.

It doesn’t matter all that much, however, as the MVP is designed for the most valuable player, not just the best. And while Shaq was the most dominant and feared player in the game for a couple of years, he didn’t always give his all during the regular season. And that’s what an MVP should do.

3. The Biggest-Turnaround School

For adherents of this school, if a player’s arrival or improvement leads to a massive turnaround for his franchise, then that should function as a tie-breaker against other worthy candidates. This thinking led to Steve Nash’ first MVP award (leaving Shaquille O'Neal at No.2) after running-and-gunning the Suns to a 62-20 record in his first season. For this year, it would have to be Kevin Garnett as his (and Ray Allen’s arrival) have instantly turned the bottom-feeders from the Atlantic Division into legitimate title contenders.

But then again, it is not Kobe’s or LeBron’s fault that their teams already enjoyed good seasons last year…

4. His-Team-would-miss-him-most School

For others, the MVP is the player whose team would experience the biggest drop-off if he were missing. From this perspective, LeBron James, Chris Paul and arguably Steve Nash are candidates for the MVP as the Cavaliers, Hornets and Suns respectively would completely falter without them – though LeBron would probably be most sorely missed.

However, taking this measure generally overvalues point guards (and, yes, LeBron is Cleveland’s de facto point guard) as it is their job to establish a team’s identity and pace as well as getting everyone to play together. And we shouldn’t forget that teams purposely surround their star player with guys that are best suited to his style of play – like Phoenix assembling a group of track runners to match Nash’ abilities. So, this approach is also not the philosopher’s stone of MVP voting.

5. The Statistics School

Finally, the easiest measure to discern the player most deserving of an MVP award is to check his statistics. ESPN’s John Hollinger has developed a stat called Player Efficiency Rating (PER) that evaluates all the available data – points, rebounds, field-goal percentage, looks… The top-three he arrives at are LeBron James, Chris Paul and Amare Stoudemire.

Stats are important but come on… they’re not that important. After all, basketball ain’t baseball and when it comes to selecting the MVP, it’s better to trust your eyes than some numbers. Need proof? In case you’re interested, No. 10 on Hollinger’s list is the Rockets’ Rookie Carl Landry – just two spots behind Kobe Bryant and ahead of Dwight Howard, Dwyane Wade and company.

My Very Personal MVP

What is left to say? As the pool of sportswriters that can vote for the MVP contains members from all these schools (and quite possibly a number of others, too), it is tough to predict who will eventually hoist the Maurice Podoloff Trophy.

Yet, I can tell you my own and absolutely personal choice: Kobe ought to win the award at least once before everything is said and done (Nowitzki, for one, would go with Kobe) and LeBron is definitely going to win it a couple of times but what Chris Paul has done for the Hornets this year is simply spectacular. I could watch him for hours slicing and dishing to an open Peja Stojakovic or David West, lobbing it to Tyson Chandler or going for a high-arcing scoop shot himself.

New Orleans deserves an MVP a few years removed from Katrina – it’s just a shame the MVP plays in an half-empty arena…

- Ole

(Click here [1] to read my suggestions for a different MVP voting system: The Ole-Vote)