One and Done

The NBA's Age Limit Revisited

March 24, 2008

When the NBA installed an age limit following the 2005-06 season, many observers frowned upon what was perceived as an act of arbitrary over-regulation. After all, LeBron James had just proven that at only 18 years of age, he could carry an entire franchise on his already impressive shoulders. So why then should other gifted high-school athletes be prevented from living their dream and making it onto an NBA roster without having to clear the hurdle of college; especially when few of them had any intention of completing a degree.

But you didn’t have to go down this road, to see realistic dangers. What about a promising young high-school star who is highly recruited by the NBA but then, in his only year in college, suffers a career-threatening knee injury and never plays a game of basketball again. For him, the age limit would have been costly, indeed: as in millions of dollars costly. That this is not a far-fetched example made up by a Janus-faced money-grabbing player agent, just take a look at the very last draft class.

Greg Oden was the consensus No.1 pick before he played one game of collegiate basketball and his successful campaign with Ohio State that ended in the NCAA Finals against Florida did nothing to change that. A few months after the can’t-miss project was drafted first overall by the Portland Trailblazers, he was diagnosed with a knee problem that kept him out for his entire rookie season. Had he been diagnosed right before the draft, would Portland still have taken him No. 1?

The answer is: probably yes. However, if you’re not as lucky to be Greg Oden but a more marginal talent, your financial outlook may in fact change dramatically the moment you awkwardly land on somebody else’s foot.

So why would anyone hail the rule as a full-fledged success, not only for the NBA but also for the college game and the vast majority of athletes themselves? Well, I am going to make a case for just that.

First up: college. Many commentators feared that the mass advent of the one-and-done player who came to campus for one season only to leave for the NBA’s riches would disrupt programmes and effectively prevent college coaches from ever planning too far ahead. Roles and rotations would be hard to define and the overall quality of the game would suffer. Yet, the college game seems to do just fine.

Instead of detracting from team success, singular talents like Kevin Durant seem to invigorate the programs they play for – with lasting effects even after they have moved on. This year’s Texas team, for instance, hasn’t shown a downturn now that Durant is a Seattle Sonic. Quite the contrary: A.J. Abrams and D.J Augustin have led the Longhorns to a No.2 seed in the tournament where – so far – they have advanced to the Sweet 16.

The NBA also appears to benefit. While we’re unlikely to see All-American talents like Patrick Ewing and Tim Duncan that spent the full four years in college and receive a huge amount of national exposure prior to their NBA career, even one hyped year of college makes a hell of a difference. Had Kevin Durant gone pro directly after high school, he still would have made it in the NBA. But he wouldn’t have come to the League accompanied with as much fanfare, fan interest and name recognition. And he surely wouldn’t have cashed in as lucrative a shoe deal with Nike as he did.

Which brings us to the third group: the players. Sure, there may be some young men whose weaknesses or lack of improvement were exposed in college, causing them to drop in the draft and losing money in the process. Josh McRoberts was a McDonald’s All-American in High school and a likely lottery pick. After two years at Duke, however, he only went in the second round of the 2007 draft to the Portland Trailblazers and currently plays for the Idaho Stampede in the NBA Development League.

For many other players, though, the age limit has been a blessing in disguise. Either, players like Mike Conley Jr. drastically improve both their draft stock and their skill-set during their short time in college, or they have the opportunity to play against top competition to help them realize that they are not yet ready for the next level.

When in the past, fringe players declared for the draft right out of high school typically based on bad advice, they not only missed out on the NBA but also lost their eligibility to play in the NCAA. That in turn meant that they missed out on the chance of a free education in both the field of academia and basketball; something that might have enabled them to play professional basketball or find a well-paid job somewhere down the line.

Hence, in my eyes it’s pretty clear. The age-limit has been an almost unlimited success.

- Ole

currently 5.00/5 1 2 3 4 5 5.0/5 (1 Vote)

Created by: Ole